Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, ..
1. Impact
On 19 October Bologna was hit by severe rainfall, causing flooding in the city.
2. Description of the event
The evaluation of the rainfall will focus on 24-hour rainfall on 19 October 00UTC - 20 October 00UTC for a 0.25x0.25 degree box centred on Bologna (centred on 44.5N, 11.3E).
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 17 October 00UTC to 20 October 00UTC, every 12th hour.
The plots below show analyses of T850 and z500 from 16 October to 20 October.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show 24-hour precipitation in observations (first plot), concatenated short forecasts (second plot). For some reason we are missing observations north of Bologna.
The plots below show 24-hour precipitation in ENS control forecasts with different lead times.
The plots below show 24-hour precipitation in DestinE 4.4km with different lead times.
The plots below show 24-hour precipitation in AIFS with different lead times.
The plots below show 24-hour precipitation in AIFS-ENS member 1 with different lead times.
3.3 ENS
The plots below shows EFI and SOT for 1-day precipitation.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 24-hour precipitation for the box south of Bologna.
Observation - green hourglass
Analysis - green dot
ENS control–red
ENS - blue box-and-whisker
AIFS - cyan dot
Desint4.4km - evergreen dot
AIFS-ENS - grey box-and-whiske
Model climate – cyan box-and-whisker
Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1800 forecasts.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Reasonable signal in the medium-range
- The amplitude of the event was under-predicted
- aIFs-ENS on similar level as IFS